As a preview to tonight’s draft, I took a look at the workloads for NCAA pitchers projected to be drafted in the first round. The big takeaway is that UCLA’s Griffin Canning was worked very hard in his college career.
On Monday, I covered Robert Gsellman’s irregular velocity plummet within his starts this year. The decreased velocity trend and a drop in pitch spin have created a less effective pitcher, and hint at an injury.
Below is the slideshow and audio from my presentation on college pitcher workloads at the SABR Analytics Conference earlier this month. Thanks to Jacob Pomrenke of SABR for making both available.
Earlier this week, I took an in-depth look at Brian Dozier’s power output from last year, and found that his home run rate and success on BIP both look headed for a downturn. You can read more here.
My chapter in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2017 was published online today, covering competitive balance throughout baseball’s history. The analysis is built off a new metric—the “Hope and Faith Index” (HFI)—that simply but effectively provides a window into how competitive baseball is at any point in time. The piece is up for a 2017 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award for Historical Analysis/Commentary.
I also chatted about the piece earlier this month on The Ringer’s MLB Show; the episode can be found here.
For FanGraphs today, I examined the relationship between Travis d’Arnaud’s bat wrap and performance in the past two years. His exit velocities and pull rates show a clear disadvantage to his more wrapped set-ups. Check out the article for more details.
Yesterday for FanGraphs, I analyzed whether Noah Syndergaard’s much-discussed stolen base weakness would be more damaging in the postseason. Conventional wisdom is that come playoff time, stolen bases are more impactful and occur more frequently. Neither of these notions hold up against empirical evidence. Even in the postseason, a pitcher’s vulnerability to the running game is far less important than his performance against hitters. It should come as no surprise that Syndergaard was dominant yesterday.