THT: How Much Hope and Faith Is in Major League Baseball?

My chapter in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2017 was published online today, covering competitive balance throughout baseball’s history. The analysis is built off a new metric—the “Hope and Faith Index” (HFI)—that simply but effectively provides a window into how competitive baseball is at any point in time. The piece is up for a 2017 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award for Historical Analysis/Commentary.

I also chatted about the piece earlier this month on The Ringer’s MLB Show; the episode can be found here.

FG: Syndergaard’s Stolen-Base Problem and the Postseason

Yesterday for FanGraphs, I analyzed whether Noah Syndergaard’s much-discussed stolen base weakness would be more damaging in the postseason. Conventional wisdom is that come playoff time, stolen bases are more impactful and occur more frequently. Neither of these notions hold up against empirical evidence. Even in the postseason, a pitcher’s vulnerability to the running game is far less important than his performance against hitters. It should come as no surprise that Syndergaard was dominant yesterday.